This is a huge game for Duke in their own back yard just 140 miles away from their campus going up against a Cincinnati team that has over achieved this year and already lost their head coach to Tennessee. It's their first bowl game in 18 years and they have not won a bowl game since 1960.
Duke has to stop the run and although I don't think they can I think they can hold Cinci to field goals in this game. Duke's defense held opponents to 64% TD's in the red zone, but Cincinnati only converted 50% of their RZ trips into TD's. Duke also has a very under rated secondary that's full of veterans that should be able to come up with a few interceptions in this game. Meanwhile Duke has an experienced QB in Sean Renfree who will be throwing the ball to Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder who will challenge a Cinci secondary that can be beat and will be beat in this game. Duke's defense at times has stopped the run and they will be well prepared for this game, They held a Stanford offense to 3.54 ypc earlier in the year.
The challenge for Duke will be passing on Cinci, but Cinci's has only allowed 11 TD passes in 12 games, but to be perfectly honest they played a lot of teams that were not very good in passing the ball and I think that's the biggest key here. I looked at several average opponent ranks for Cinci's pass defense. Duke's statistical ranking was much higher than those averages for example. Completion percentage, Duke is ranked 39th in the nation and Cinci faced an average opponent ranked 65th. Completions per game, Duke is ranked 14th and Cinci faced an average opponent ranked 63rd, and lastly sacked %. Duke ranked 29th in fewest sack % while Cinci faced an average 67th opponent. Renfree gets the ball out of his hands fast and is accurate and I think Duke can very well win this game. It will be windy for this game but in recent years we have seen that this has not played much of a factor. If anything that only makes Cinci more one dimensional.
